The Technion Prediction Tournament

Organized by: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth

Download Estimation Set Raw Data

Download Competition Set Raw Data

NOTE: The Raw data contain 2 txt files (one per each group of participants).

Each raw contains 14 variables and represents each participant's behavior in one of the 60 problems of the estimation set.

The variables are organized as follows:

Id Problem Order High p(high), Low, Medium, Choice, payoff, Nsafe, Nrisk, Nsmp, AvgS, AvgR.

Where

Id - the participant number.

Problem is the problem number (see Table).

Order is the order in which the problem was presented.

High - the high risk of the risky gamble.

P(high) - the probability of getting this high payoff.

Low - the low payoff from the gamble.

Medium - the payoff of choosing the safe option.

Choice - the participants choice in the real game (a binary variable that gets 1 if the risky gamble was chosen and 0 otherwise).

Payoff - is the payoff that was drawn for the specific choice (participants did not see this payoff but it was used in at the end of the experiment in case that specific problem was drawn.

Nsafe - The number of times the participant sampled the sure deck

Nrisk -  The number of times the participant sampled the risky deck

Nsmp - The total number of samples in that problem

AvrS - The average payoff observed during the sampling of the safe deck

AvrR - The average payoff observed during the sampling of the risky deck

Raw Data of Sampling Sequences during the Sampling Phase
(after a correction of a typo on October 23, 2011)

Download Sampling Sequences - Estimation Set

Download Sampling Sequences - Competition Set

The variables are organized as follows:

Id - ID number.

Order - the order of the problem.

Trial - the order of the sample

Group – co-hort (each co-hort saw a different set of 30 problems)

Set - Data set, Estimation or competition

Sampkey – the sampled key: Safe (S) or Risky (R)

Sampout – the outcome of the sample

Finalr – the final choice (made once after the sampling stage)

Med, high, low, phighChoice – the parameters of the problem.