4.1 The estimation set - results

(a minor bug was corrected on May 11, 2008)

The following are the aggregated results (proportion of choices of the risky option) in each of the 60 problems in the estimation set. Competition entrants may use this data to devise or adapt their models, and to set any parameter values that are to be applied to the test set. The evaluation of models will focus on minimizing the mean squared distance (MSD) between the model’s prediction and aggregate proportions of risk taking in the test set.

Table 1: the aggregate proportion of choices in risk in each of the experimental conditions.

	Risk Gamble			Safe	Proprotion of choices in Risk			average number
Problem	High	P(High)	Low	Medium	Description	E-Sampling	E-repeated	of samples
1	-0.3	0.96	-2.1	-0.3	0.2	0.25	0.33	10.4
2	-0.9	0.95	-4.2	-1	0.2	0.55	0.50	9.7
3	-6.3	0.3	-15.2	-12.2	0.6	0.5	0.24	13.9
4	-10	0.2	-29.2	-25.6	0.85	0.3	0.32	10.7
5	-1.7	0.9	-3.9	-1.9	0.3	0.8	0.45	9.9
6	-6.3	0.99	-15.7	-6.4	0.35	0.75	0.68	9.9
7	-5.6	0.7	-20.2	-11.7	0.5	0.6	0.37	11.1
8	-0.7	0.1	-6.5	-6	0.75	0.2	0.27	13.9
9	-5.7	0.95	-16.3	-6.1	0.3	0.6	0.43	11.0
10	-1.5	0.92	-6.4	-1.8	0.15	0.9	0.44	11.8
11	-1.2	0.02	-12.3	-12.1	0.9	0.15	0.26	11.9
12	-5.4	0.94	-16.8	-6.4	0.1	0.65	0.55	11.2
13	-2	0.05	-10.4	-9.4	0.5	0.2	0.11	10.4
14	-8.8	0.6	-19.5	-15.5	0.7	0.8	0.66	12.1
15	-8.9	0.08	-26.3	-25.4	0.6	0.3	0.19	11.6
16	-7.1	0.07	-19.6	-18.7	0.55	0.25	0.34	11.0
17	-9.7	0.1	-24.7	-23.8	0.9	0.55	0.37	15.1
18	-4	0.2	-9.3	-8.1	0.65	0.4	0.34	11.2
19	-6.5	0.9	-17.5	-8.4	0.55	0.8	0.49	14.9
20	-4.3	0.6	-16.1	-4.5	0.05	0.2	0.08	10.9
21	2	0.1	-5.7	-4.6	0.65	0.2	0.11	8.8
22	9.6	0.91	-6.4	8.7	0.05	0.7	0.41	9.2
23	7.3	0.8	-3.6	5.6	0.15	0.7	0.39	10.7
24	9.2	0.05	-9.5	-7.5	0.5	0.05	0.08	14.6
25	7.4	0.02	-6.6	-6.4	0.9	0.1	0.19	8.9
26	6.4	0.05	-5.3	-4.9	0.65	0.15	0.20	13.4
27	1.6	0.93	-8.3	1.2	0.15	0.7	0.50	8.9
28	5.9	0.8	-0.8	4.6	0.35	0.65	0.58	10.6
29	7.9	0.92	-2.3	7	0.4	0.65	0.51	10.6
30	3	0.91	-7.7	1.4	0.4	0.7	0.41	10.0
31	6.7	0.95	-1.8	6.4	0.1	0.7	0.52	11.0
32	6.7	0.93	-5	5.6	0.25	0.55	0.49	11.0
33	7.3	0.96	-8.5	6.8	0.15	0.75	0.65	11.1
34	1.3	0.05	-4.3	-4.1	0.75	0.1	0.3	11.4
35	3	0.93	-7.2	2.2	0.25	0.55	0.44	12.8
36	5	0.08	-9.1	-7.9	0.4	0.2	0.09	14.6
37	2.1	0.8	-8.4	1.3	0.1	0.35	0.28	10.9
38	6.7	0.07	-6.2	-5.1	0.65	0.2	0.29	10.9
39	7.4	0.3	-8.2	-6.9	0.85	0.7	0.58	12.7
40	6	0.98	-1.3	5.9	0.1	0.7	0.61	13.5
41	18.8	0.8	7.6	15.5	0.35	0.6	0.52	9.0
42	17.9	0.92	7.2	17.1	0.15	0.8	0.48	10.8
43	22.9	0.06	9.6	9.2	0.75	0.9	0.88	9.9
44	10	0.96	1.7	9.9	0.2	0.7	0.56	10.1
45	2.8	0.8	1	2.2	0.55	0.7	0.48	19.4
46	17.1	0.1	6.9	8	0.45	0.2	0.32	9.2
47	24.3	0.04	9.7	10.6	0.65	0.2	0.25	11.8
48	18.2	0.98	6.9	18.1	0.1	0.75	0.59	9.0
49	13.4	0.5	3.8	9.9	0.05	0.45	0.13	8.9
50	5.8	0.04	2.7	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.35	10.0
51	13.1	0.94	3.8	12.8	0.15	0.65	0.52	9.0
52	3.5	0.09	0.1	0.5	0.35	0.25	0.26	11.9
53	25.7	0.1	8.1	11.5	0.4	0.25	0.11	9.0
54	16.5	0.01	6.9	7	0.85	0.25	0.18	13.4
55	11.4	0.97	1.9	11	0.15	0.7	0.66	9.6
56	26.5	0.94	8.3	25.2	0.2	0.5	0.53	14.3
57	11.5	0.6	3.7	7.9	0.35	0.45	0.45	10.0
58	20.8	0.99	8.9	20.7	0.25	0.65	0.63	12.9
59	10.1	0.3	4.2	6	0.45	0.45	0.32	10.1
60	8	0.92	0.8	7.7	0.2	0.55	0.44	10.2

Note - All problems involves binary choice between a sure payoff (Medium) and a risky option with two possible outcomes (High and Low). For example, Problem 1 describes a choice between loss of NIS 0.3 for sure, and a gamble that yields a loss of NIS 0.3 with probability of 0.96 and a loss of NIS 2.1 otherwise.

The proportion of participants who chose risk in the decision under risk task, the decisions from sampling task, and decisions from feedback task is presented in the Description, Sampling, and Feedback Columns respectively.