7. Baseline models

In order to clarify the prediction task we derived the prediction of several models. We chose to focus on models that were described and estimated (using a Mean Squared Distance criteria) in previous research. In addition, we present two new models that were motivated by the data collected in the estimation study. The predictions of the published baseline models were derived with the original parameters, and with parameters estimated to fit the estimation set. The models are grouped by the experimental conditions that they were designed to address.

for a short description of the models and their evaluation on the estimation set in each of the three conditions see:

7.1 Baseline models - One shot decisions under risk

7.2 Baseline models - One shot decisions from experience

7.3 Baseline models - Repeated decisions from experience